Who will govern Belarus when Lukashenko is gone? And will all officials be dismissed?
Who will replace the 200,000 civil servants working for Lukashenko’s regime if changes take place? And should all of them be replaced?
These questions, along with the nuances of how the state would function during a transition period, were discussed within the framework of a debate dedicated to implementing the new program of the United Transitional Cabinet, “Personnel Reserve for a New Belarus.”
The meeting took place in Warsaw on December 22.
“When we talk about replacing personnel of the current regime, we clearly understand that this process will not affect every single person currently working in the Belarusian state apparatus.
Our message is this: if you are a professional, if you have not participated in repression, have not fired subordinates for political reasons, and have not falsified elections — you can find a place in the new team,” says Deputy Representative of the United Transitional Cabinet responsible for forming the personnel reserve, Yury Gubarevich.
900 officials from Lukashenko’s registry will need to be replaced
The “Personnel Reserve for a New Belarus” program was launched in November 2022. To become a participant and a candidate for a leadership position in a democratic Belarus, one needs to go through five steps — from application and training to working in a team of reformers. The program is aimed at all Belarusians: those who left the country and those who remained, including current civil servants at various levels.
According to Yury Gubarevich, 900 officials from Lukashenko’s personnel registry will need to be replaced.
“Our task is to select new people, properly prepare them, form a team of change, and be ready to implement reforms,” says Gubarevich.
Pavel Latushko: We do not yet have such capacity
According to Pavel Latushko, Deputy Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus for the transit of power, the “Personnel Reserve for a New Belarus” program received 125 applications in its first month. Of these, 40% came from people still inside the country, and 20% from those working in state institutions. The most common backgrounds are diplomats, economists, lawyers, and specialists in finance and industry.
“This program is primarily aimed at forming a personnel reserve at the local level — for district and city executive committees, possibly regional ones. The political leadership of the country must be formed at the level of political structures currently operating in the democratic field, primarily the United Transitional Cabinet, which is effectively the transitional government of Belarus,” Latushko explained.
Taking responsibility during the transition period, the Cabinet, according to Latushko, should have political representation at the level of all ministries in Belarus. However, such capacity is not yet available, though the process has begun and envisions a broad socio-political coalition.
Latushko also said that a personnel matrix has already been developed, listing 45,000 civil servants who would need to be replaced.
“We are not currently able to replace all 45,000 positions,” Latushko noted, adding that “given the situation, there is very little time left to form the reserve.”
According to him, the reserve can be supplemented by current political actors, as well as lower-level Belarusian officials who support change and would join the reform team at a key moment (“Our program is a pass into the future for them”).
He also emphasized the need to involve political prisoners in the future governance of Belarus, noting that many talented and experienced people are currently in prisons and should participate in both transition and post-transition governance.
“We need a very simple system of governance”
According to Latushko, there should be no restrictions regarding citizenship for members of the diaspora, especially since some may have their citizenship revoked by the regime.
“We will need a very simple system of governance, a very clear system dividing branches of power. A system of checks and balances. There are currently too many unnecessary institutions created solely to strengthen the power of one person,” he said.
He also noted that during the transition period it would be too late to decide which Constitution should apply in the new Belarus, so this question should already be analyzed in depth, including whether to use the “base scenario” — the 1994 Constitution.
Regarding future lustration, Latushko said that no one would be “torn apart,” as Lukashenko’s propaganda often claims.
“If a civil servant committed a crime, they will be held accountable within the appropriate judicial system: investigation, prosecution, court decision. Only this will be the mechanism of lustration,” he said.
Anatoly Lyabedzka: If we don’t do this work, there will be a blockage
“This needs very concrete work. If we have 1,100 judges in Belarus, then the task of the personnel reserve is to prepare 1,200 potential judges who can immediately enter the system. These are key arteries, and if we don’t do this work, there will be a blockage,” said Anatoly Lyabedzka, representative of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya for parliamentary cooperation and constitutional reform.
He described the preparation of future personnel as extremely urgent and spoke about work on a draft Constitution for a new Belarus, which has already passed three readings.
However, he noted that the war has introduced changes, and radical proposals will be introduced next year to закреп the Euro-Atlantic orientation of Belarus. He also called for discussion on language policy, stating that bilingualism may no longer be appropriate in the current context.
Lyabedzka expressed concern about returning to the 1994 Constitution, which established a presidential system — something many Belarusians currently fear.
At the end of his speech, he noted a “personnel revolution” in Belarus, where one ruling elite is being replaced by another.
He also proposed forming a coalition with the creators of the personnel reserve for a new Belarus.
Artyom Praskalovich: Not everything is bad in our legislation
Artyom Praskalovich, Deputy Representative of the United Transitional Cabinet and former lawyer of Lukashenko’s administration, spoke about the current principles of personnel management under the regime.
He believes that in the beginning, democratic authorities will have to rely on the existing legal framework — more than 200,000 legal acts — which cannot be discarded all at once.
“It all depends on practice. Not everything is bad in our legislation. Even our Electoral Code is not that bad — the issue is how it is applied,” he said.
He noted that negative selection in state institutions has led to mostly passive and uninspired officials in leadership positions.
“But during the transition period, they are unlikely to engage in counterrevolutionary actions and will more likely follow more efficient leaders,” he said.
Vitali Makaranka, a member of the BPF Party Council and master of public administration, also emphasized that mass replacement of all officials who worked under Lukashenko could lead to a loss of governance capacity. Therefore, personnel policy during the transition must be carefully balanced.
(Source: Belsat)
